Soybean Meal Price Index 2026: Are Stockpiles and Inventories Stabilizing Prices
Soybean meal is trading near $310–317/short ton (48% protein, Decatur basis) in May 2026, per USDA WASDE April 2026 and CBOT nearby futures data. The market is caught between a bearish fundamental backdrop — record Brazilian production, ample global stocks at 124.8 million metric tons, and a pattern of "strong crush, rising inventories" — and a volatile overlay of US-China trade friction, energy-driven soy oil premiums, and Argentine harvest disruption. Prices are not freely falling, but they are not trending higher either. For feed manufacturers and traders, this is a managed-volatility environment, not a tightening market.
Soybean Meal Prices in 2026: Where the Market Stands Today
The USDA raised its 2025/26 season-average soybean meal price forecast by $10/short ton to $310/short ton in its April 2026 WASDE report, citing higher domestic disappearance linked to poultry and pork expansion as consumers shift toward cheaper protein amid elevated beef prices. The CBOT May 2026 nearby soybean meal futures contract was trading at $317.60/short ton as of late April 2026. The IMF global benchmark price for soybean meal stood at $312.43/MT for March 2026, per FRED/St. Louis Federal Reserve data.
The price structure entering May 2026 tells a split story by origin and product form. US soybean meal prices surged in March and April, widening the premium between US and Brazilian origin significantly. South American soybean meal prices — produced from Brazil's record 2025/26 harvest, now estimated by USDA at 180 million metric tons — remained subdued through Q1 2026 as continuous South American harvest and high local crush rates drove ample nearby supply per USDA FAS April 2026 Oilseeds report. Brazilian meal was available at a material discount to US Gulf for comparable specifications, creating a clear origin arbitrage for buyers with supply-chain flexibility.
Looking back over the prior six months: meal prices bottomed in late November 2025 when US soybean meal inventories climbed to a 12-month peak of 463,000 short tons and soybean oil stocks surged to 2.164 billion pounds — an 18-month high. Both indicators pointed to a "strong crushing, rising inventories" dynamic that weighed heavily on meal values heading into year-end. The partial recovery since January reflects rising soybean oil prices (tied to energy market disruption and EPA renewable volume obligations), which improved crush margins and pulled meal along.
What Is Driving Soybean Meal Prices in 2026?
Driver 1: The Oil-Meal Decoupling — Crush Economics Are Reshaping Prices
The most important structural shift in the soybean meal price story is the increasing decoupling of the soy complex's two outputs: oil and meal. Historically, crushers ran plants to capture meal value, with oil as a secondary by-product. In 2026, the inversion is increasingly pronounced. Soybean oil hit three-year highs in March and April 2026, sustained by elevated crude oil prices linked to Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions and by EPA's finalized 2026–2027 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard, which codified stronger biomass-based diesel (BBD) demand. Crush margins around the Midwest reached a 2.5-year high during that period — driven almost entirely by the oil leg, per the American Soybean Association.
The consequence for meal: crushers ran plants hard to capture oil margins, producing soybean meal as a co-output whether or not meal demand justified it. US soymeal production for 2025/26 was revised upward by 800,000 short tons to 61.877 million short tons in the April 2026 WASDE, with all of that additional production absorbed domestically by strong poultry and pork offtake. The structural implication is that meal supply will remain ample as long as biofuel mandates keep oil-driven crush elevated — which is the most likely scenario for 2026.
Driver 2: Record Brazilian Supply Capping Upside
Brazil accounts for approximately 42% of global soybean production for marketing year 2025/26, and its 2025/26 crop is confirmed at approximately 180 million metric tons — a record. Together, Brazil and the US represent roughly 70% of global production, per USDA FAS February 2026. Brazil's record crop is not merely a volume story; it has reshuffled global trade flows in a way that structurally pressures US export competitiveness and deepens South American meal availability.
Brazil now supplies approximately 71% of China's soybean imports in 2026, with the US share reduced to approximately 21%, reflecting both tariff barriers (US soybeans face Chinese retaliatory duties estimated at approximately $2/bushel premium above Brazilian origin) and Beijing's active diversification strategy. US soybean export volumes for 2025/26 are forecast by USDA at 1.54 billion bushels — the lowest share of global soybean trade in 13 years at just 23%. Every bushel that does not get exported to China gets crushed domestically in the US, producing additional meal supply that needs a home in other markets.
Driver 3: Global Ending Stocks — Large But Not Bearish Enough to Break Prices
Global soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 stand at 124.8 million metric tons per USDA April 2026 WASDE — down 0.5 million tons from the prior month estimate on higher crush, but still ample by historical standards. US domestic soybean ending stocks are held at 350 million bushels, unchanged from prior-month estimates. The stocks-to-use ratio remains in comfortable territory. USDA's preliminary 2026/27 outlook, published in February 2026, projects US soybean ending stocks nearly flat at 355 million bushels, suggesting no structural supply squeeze is imminent.
The inventory picture does answer the article's central question: yes, stockpiles are currently acting as a price stabilizer — but from the downside only. They are preventing a free fall rather than supporting a recovery. The bearish weight of ample corn-belt inventories, record South American supply, and elevated product stocks from November's 12-month meal inventory peak is why USDA's consensus forecast for 2026/27 meal prices is just $300/short ton — essentially flat year-on-year, per the USDA February 2026 Outlook report.
Driver 4: US-China Trade Friction — Geopolitical Volatility, Not Fundamental Shortage
The most disruptive non-fundamental force on soybean meal pricing in 2026 is US-China trade policy. China's imposition of tariffs on US soybeans — reportedly making US origin approximately $2/bushel more expensive than Brazilian on a landed China basis — has effectively closed the US-China export window for whole beans. Beijing has also suspended import licenses for three US soybean companies, ostensibly on phytosanitary grounds, and imposed broader tariffs on approximately $21 billion worth of US agricultural products.
The market impact is felt in meal not directly but through the export displacement mechanism: US beans that cannot go to China get crushed domestically, adding to US meal supply. Meanwhile, traders are watching upcoming US-China trade talks (expected June 2026) with attention — any confirmation of Chinese purchase commitments for US soybeans would trigger a short-covering rally on CBOT, temporarily lifting both bean and meal futures regardless of physical fundamentals.
Is the Soybean Meal Market Tight, Balanced, or Oversupplied?
The global soybean meal market entering Q2 2026 is best characterized as fundamentally oversupplied at the South American origin level, balanced-to-firm at the US origin level, and moderately tight for spot nearby delivery in select import markets.
| Indicator | Current Reading | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Global soybean ending stocks (2025/26) | 124.8 MMT (USDA Apr 2026) | Ample; bearish ceiling on prices |
| US soybean meal ending stocks (Nov 2025 peak) | 463,000 short tons (12-month high) | Bearish overhang through Q1 |
| US 2025/26 crush forecast | 2.61 billion bushels (record) | High meal output, supply pressure |
| Brazil 2025/26 soybean harvest | 180 MMT (USDA, record) | Structural South American oversupply |
| Argentina harvest progress (Apr 2026) | 10% vs 60% seasonal average | Short-term bullish risk factor |
| CBOT soybean May 2026 futures | ~$11.7/bushel | Near 2-year high; Argentina weather risk premium |
| US soymeal May 2026 nearby futures | ~$317.60/short ton | Firm; oil-crush margin driven |
| South American soymeal prices | Subdued vs US; discount to Gulf | Favorable for basis-seeking buyers |
Argentina is the key near-term wildcard. Continuous rainfall in Santa Fe province in April 2026 stalled harvest activity at just 10% against a 60% seasonal average — a 50-percentage-point deficit that is the most severe logistical disruption of the season per Trading Economics. Argentina is the world's largest soybean oil and meal exporter. If its harvest is materially curtailed by persistent rainfall, it tightens global meal export availability in the May-July 2026 window, when Brazil's post-harvest export pace typically moderates.
Soybean Meal Prices by Region: Current Benchmarks and Differentials
| Benchmark | Current Price (Approx.) | Source / Period | Trend vs. Prior Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 48% protein, Decatur (season avg.) | $310/short ton | USDA WASDE Apr 2026 | Up $10/short ton vs. prior month |
| CBOT May 2026 futures | $317.60/short ton | ASA, late Apr 2026 | Firming on oil-crush momentum |
| Global IMF benchmark | $312.43/MT | FRED/IMF, Mar 2026 | Stable |
| Brazil (any origin) | $389.17/MT | Ycharts, Feb 2026 | Elevated; declining from Q4 peak |
| South American origin (FOB) | Discount to US Gulf | USDA FAS Apr 2026 | Subdued; harvest pressure |
| Southeast Asia (import market) | $354/MT average (Q4 2025) | ChemAnalyst Q4 2025 | Firm; recovering |
The US-South America spread is the defining arbitrage in this market. US soybean meal traded at a significant premium to South American origin through Q1 2026, driven by the oil-crush-margin dynamic pulling US prices higher. Buyers with logistics flexibility to source from Brazilian or Argentine origin have a clear cost advantage in this environment. European importers — France being the largest EU destination — are exposed to EUDR compliance risk premiums ranging from €20 to €40/ton for non-certified meal, representing a material additional cost that South American suppliers with deforestation-free certification can sidestep.
Soybean Meal Price Forecast 2026: Base, Upside, and Downside
Base Case: Flat to Modestly Softer Through 2026/27
USDA's preliminary 2026/27 soybean meal price forecast is $300/short ton — essentially flat to slightly lower than current 2025/26 levels. ING Think's December 2025 outlook projected further declines in global soybean stocks through 2026/27 to approximately 110 million metric tons, with a stocks-to-use ratio falling from 29% to 25%, which provides structural price support relative to the most bearish scenarios. The World Bank projects the global agricultural price index to slip approximately 2% in 2026, with soybean-related prices expected to hold broadly steady as supply growth keeps pace with demand.
In practical terms: the base case for soybean meal is a range of $290–$320/short ton (Decatur basis) through H2 2026, with prices gravitating toward the lower end of that range once Brazil's post-harvest export surge fully pressures South American origin meal, and with the upper end anchored by oil-driven crush support.
Key milestones to watch: USDA May 12 WASDE (will update 2026/27 balance sheets), CONAB May 14 Brazil crop assessment, and the outcome of US-China trade talks expected in June.
Upside Risk: Argentine Crop Damage + US-China Trade Thaw
The upside risk scenario — pushing prices toward $350–$380/short ton — requires two conditions to align simultaneously: material Argentine crop damage from the ongoing rainfall disruption in Santa Fe and Buenos Aires provinces, reducing available South American meal supply through July; and a confirmed US-China trade deal in which China commits to significant US soybean purchases (the reported pledge of 25 million metric tons per year has not been formally confirmed as of May 2026). Either event alone would produce a temporary rally. Both together would represent a genuine tightening that could sustain prices for 60–90 days above $340/short ton.
Downside Risk: Biofuel Policy Softening + South American Supply Normalization
The downside risk scenario — pushing prices toward $260–$280/short ton — is driven by two triggers: weakening of biofuel mandates (such as softening of EPA RVOs or reduced California BBD demand growth), which would cut oil-driven crush rates and leave meal without its oil-margin support; and Argentina's harvest normalizing quickly, returning full South American meal export supply to global markets by June. If US soybean plantings for 2026/27 proceed at the USDA baseline of approximately 85 million acres (up 5% year-on-year) and summer weather is favorable, the supply pipeline building into Q4 2026 would reinforce the bearish fundamental case.
Scenario Summary
| Scenario | Price Range (Decatur) | Key Trigger | Probability Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | $290–$320/short ton | Ample supply, oil-driven crush support, US-China status quo | Most likely through H2 2026 |
| Upside | $340–$380/short ton | Argentine crop damage AND confirmed US-China soybean deal | Possible; watching May weather data |
| Downside | $260–$280/short ton | Biofuel policy softening OR large US 2026/27 harvest + favorable weather | Possible in Q4 2026 if planting conditions hold |
What the Cost Structure Tells Buyers About Price Floors
Soybean meal is not produced in isolation — its cost is determined by the economics of crushing soybeans, and approximately 80% of a crushed soybean by weight becomes meal. The raw soybean feedstock cost is the dominant input. At a CBOT soybean price near $11.70/bushel and a crush yield of approximately 47–48 pounds of meal per bushel, the implied feedstock contribution to meal cost alone is significant.
When crush margins in the US Midwest reached 2.5-year highs in March-April 2026 on oil price strength, crushers had no incentive to slow production — further reinforcing meal supply. That is the structural dynamic buyers should track: as long as soy oil remains supported above $0.55/pound (currently near $0.59/pound per USDA), the oil leg of the crush funds aggressive processing rates, and meal production will remain elevated regardless of meal-specific demand. Meal price floors are therefore set not by meal demand but by the minimum that keeps US Gulf exports competitive relative to South American origin — a moving target tied to freight differentials and currency moves.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the current price of soybean meal in 2026?
A: As of late April-May 2026, US 48% protein soybean meal (Decatur basis) is priced near $310–317/short ton, per USDA April 2026 WASDE and CBOT nearby futures data. The IMF global benchmark stood at $312.43/MT for March 2026. South American origin meal trades at a discount to US Gulf on an FOB basis; Brazilian meal was approximately $389/MT any origin as of February 2026.
Q: Why are soybean meal prices volatile in 2026 despite record supply?
A: The paradox of high supply and price volatility in 2026 reflects the influence of factors beyond physical stock levels. US soybean meal prices are being lifted by soybean oil demand for renewable diesel — oil-driven crush margins at 2.5-year highs are pushing crushers to run at record rates, keeping meal output elevated but also sustaining price floors. Simultaneously, Argentine harvest delays, US-China trade friction, and geopolitical energy market disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are creating short-term price spikes unconnected to physical meal availability.
Q: Are global soybean meal stockpiles high enough to suppress prices?
A: Global soybean ending stocks at 124.8 million metric tons (USDA April 2026) are ample and are acting as a price ceiling rather than a support. US domestic soybean meal inventories hit a 12-month peak of 463,000 short tons in November 2025, contributing to bearish pressure through early 2026. USDA's preliminary 2026/27 meal price forecast of $300/short ton — flat to modestly lower than current levels — confirms that stockpiles are expected to prevent significant price appreciation through the coming marketing year.
Q: What is the soybean meal price forecast for H2 2026?
A: The base case for H2 2026 is a range of $290–$320/short ton (Decatur basis), gravitating toward the lower end as South American post-harvest supply peaks and the Argentine disruption risk fades. The upside risk scenario — Argentine crop damage combined with a confirmed US-China trade deal — could push prices to $340–380/short ton temporarily. The downside risk — biofuel policy softening or a large US 2026/27 harvest — could push prices toward $260–280/short ton in Q4 2026.
Q: Should buyers lock in soybean meal volumes now or wait?
A: The current recommendation is selective near-term coverage (30–45 days forward) to manage logistics risk, with H2 2026 volumes held open for pricing after the May 12 USDA WASDE and Argentine harvest normalization (expected May-June). Buyers with South American origin logistics access should prioritize Brazilian or Argentine-origin meal at current discounts versus US Gulf. Full-year fixed-price contracts at current levels are not recommended in this environment.
Q: Which countries export the most soybean meal globally in 2026?
A: Brazil holds more than 30% of global soybean meal export share in 2026 and is the dominant exporter by volume, with record crop output and expanding crushing capacity. Argentina is the world's largest soybean oil and meal exporter historically, though its 2026 export volumes are subject to near-term harvest disruption risk. The United States is the third major exporter, with Gulf Coast exports growing to Southeast Asia and Europe as China demand shifted toward South America. Vietnam is developing incremental regional crushing capacity but remains a net importer on a significant scale.
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