Borax Decahydrate Price Index 2026: Currency Fluctuations and Export Pricing

Borax decahydrate (Na2B4O7·10H2O) was trading at approximately USD 580–650/MT FOB Turkey in Q1 2026, according to Intratec Primary Commodity Prices, with CFR Southeast Asia landed costs running 10–15% above FOB origin reflecting elevated freight and insurance premiums. The single most consequential price driver entering 2026 is the USD/TRY exchange rate corridor: USD/TRY trading in the 48–55 range in 2026 means Eti Maden's lira-denominated production costs are increasingly cheap in dollar terms, compressing FOB offers even as global demand firms. In the base case, prices are expected to hold within a USD 560–680/MT FOB Turkey range through H1 2026, with upside risk concentrated in Q3 as solar glass procurement restocking intersects with any further Red Sea freight escalation.

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Benchmark Hub	Current Price (Approx.)	Change vs. Q3 2025	Source
FOB Turkey (Eti Maden origin)	USD 580–650/MT	+8%	Intratec / Chemanalyst
FOB Los Angeles (Rio Tinto origin)	USD 1,040–1,090/MT	+4%	Intratec
CFR France (Europe landed)	USD 640–720/MT	+9%	Intratec
CFR India (Mundra/Nhava Sheva)	USD 620–690/MT	+8–10%	Chemanalyst / Chemtradeasia
CFR Southeast Asia	USD 620–710/MT	+9–12%	Chemtradeasia

Data reflects Q1 2026 market assessments. Price ranges reflect spot cargo variability.

 

Borax Decahydrate Prices in 2026: Where the Market Stands Today

Borax decahydrate entered 2026 on a firming trend, driven by three converging forces: a structural supply reduction in North America, recovering demand from ceramics and solar glass manufacturers in Asia, and an ocean freight environment still absorbing the aftershocks of Red Sea diversions. The FOB Turkey price, which serves as the effective global benchmark, rose approximately 8% quarter-over-quarter through Q4 2025 into Q1 2026, per Intratec market data, reaching a range of USD 580–650/MT from a base of USD 540–600/MT in mid-2025.

The closure of Searles Valley Minerals' California facilities in early 2026 removed a meaningful block of North American capacity from the market. Buyers who previously sourced domestically or via short-haul U.S. origin cargoes have been forced to pivot to Turkish import offers, increasing pressure on already-tight FOB Turkey availability windows. The effect on U.S. FOB pricing has been more pronounced: FOB Los Angeles assessments reached approximately USD 1,040–1,090/MT in Q1 2026, per Intratec, representing a persistent 70–80% premium over Turkish origin material.

Sentiment across trading desks is cautiously bullish. Distributor inventories at Indian import hubs (Hazira and Mundra) thinned visibly through the December 2025 restocking cycle, as ceramics and solar glass producers accelerated purchases ahead of January production runs. That inventory draw has not yet been fully replenished, leaving the spot market tighter than seasonal norms would suggest.

 

What Does It Cost to Produce Borax Decahydrate? Feedstock and Energy Breakdown

Tincal Ore and Sodium Tetraborate: The Primary Cost Anchor

Borax decahydrate pricing is anchored in boric oxide (B2O3) content, which means the cost and grade of upstream tincal ore — the principal borate mineral — directly sets the production cost floor. Turkey holds over 70% of the world's known borate ore reserves, concentrated in the western province of Kütahya, where Eti Maden operates the Kirka Boron Works. This geological monopoly gives Turkish producers a structural feedstock cost advantage that no other origin can replicate at scale.

When upstream sodium tetraborate offers firm, the downstream decahydrate price index follows within 2–4 weeks. The Asia-Pacific pricing index rose approximately 8.35% in late 2025 precisely because elevated upstream sodium tetraborate offers from Turkish exporters flowed through to refined decahydrate spot markets in India and Southeast Asia. The pass-through is nearly immediate for spot cargo buyers; term contract buyers typically absorb changes on a quarterly price review schedule.

Energy Cost Exposure

The refining process for borax decahydrate — dissolution, settling, crystallization, filtering, drying, and conveying — is energy-intensive across all six stages, with drying and calcination representing the highest thermal load. Eti Maden benefits from subsidized energy and labor in Turkey, maintaining a structural cost advantage that keeps FOB Turkey the lowest-cost benchmark globally. Rio Tinto's Boron, California operation faces substantially higher electricity and regulatory compliance costs, which explains why FOB Los Angeles prices persistently trade at a 70–80% premium to Turkish origin.

Energy policy developments matter more in Europe than anywhere else in this supply chain. Winter natural gas tariff increases in the EU directly affect the cost of running temperature-controlled storage and blending operations for European borax distributors, who typically absorb a 5–10% cost increase in winter quarters. This seasonality creates a predictable Q4 firmness in European CFR prices that buyers sourcing from Turkish origin for European delivery should price into their annual procurement plans.

Feedstock-to-Price Pass-Through Timeline

For spot buyers purchasing CFR Asia or CFR Europe cargoes, the feedstock-to-landed-price pass-through typically takes 4–8 weeks from the date of FOB Turkey offer change, accounting for 12–20 days of vessel transit from Turkish Mediterranean ports (Iskenderun, Mersin) to Mundra or Singapore. Term contract buyers on quarterly index-linked formulas see the pass-through on a 90-day lag, which in a rising market provides a temporary buffer but in a falling market means they continue paying above-spot rates.

 

The Currency Dimension: How USD Strength and TRY Depreciation Set the Global Price Floor

Currency dynamics in the borax decahydrate market are more structurally significant than in most commodity markets, because the dominant producer (Turkey, via Eti Maden) prices its product in USD for export while carrying production costs denominated in Turkish Lira.

USD/TRY Dynamics in 2026: Eti Maden's Cost Advantage Expands

The Turkish Lira has followed a long-term depreciation trend against the USD, rising from roughly 1.10 TRY/USD in 2008 to above 43.00 by early 2025. Forecasts from banks and rating agencies entering 2026 place USD/TRY in the 48–55 range for the year, reflecting continued structural pressure on the lira despite CBRT tightening efforts. Annual inflation in Turkey declined from 75% in mid-2024 to approximately 44% by end-2024 but underlying price pressures persist, particularly in energy.

For borax decahydrate buyers, this creates a paradoxical dynamic. As the lira depreciates, Eti Maden's lira-denominated labor, energy, and operational costs shrink in USD terms. The state-owned producer can — and frequently does — hold USD FOB offer prices steady or even lower them while maintaining or expanding lira-denominated margins. This mechanism provides a structural price ceiling: when global demand strengthens, Eti Maden has limited incentive to allow USD prices to spike significantly because doing so would attract substitution or inventory build-up among major buyers.

The implication for procurement teams is direct. FOB Turkey prices are structurally anchored below USD 700/MT in any market where USD/TRY remains above 45, unless a supply disruption event occurs. Buyers who benchmark their acceptable ceiling against the USD 650–700/MT FOB Turkey range are well-positioned; those paying above USD 750/MT FOB Turkey should audit their supplier terms immediately.

DXY Softness in 2026: A Tailwind for Non-USD Buyers

The USD Dollar Index (DXY) traded around 98–99 in early 2026, down approximately 10% from its January 2025 peak above 109. For buyers transacting in non-USD currencies — Indian Rupees, Euro, Southeast Asian currencies — the softening of the DXY provides a partial natural hedge. A weaker USD means CFR-priced borax decahydrate effectively costs less in local currency terms, all else being equal.

However, Indian Rupee weakness partially offsets this benefit for Indian importers. When the Rupee depreciates against the USD (a recurring pattern during periods of emerging market stress), landed costs at Mundra and Nhava Sheva rise in local currency terms even when USD CFR prices are flat or declining. Indian procurement managers should monitor the USD/INR rate alongside the borax spot price; a 5% Rupee depreciation can add INR 2,000–3,000/MT to effective landed cost at current price levels, erasing the benefit of a stable or declining USD CFR offer.

European buyers transacting in Euro face a different dynamic. The Euro has strengthened modestly against the USD in early 2026, which reduces the EUR cost of USD-denominated CFR France import prices. Buyers sourcing on Euro-denominated term contracts from Turkish suppliers via Mediterranean freight lanes are currently in a favorable currency position, though freight rate exposure remains significant.

 

Is the Borax Decahydrate Market Tight, Balanced, or Oversupplied?

The market is best characterized as tight-to-balanced in Q1 2026, with tightness more acute in North America and parts of South Asia than in Europe.

Supply side: Turkey and the United States together control approximately 75–80% of global refined borax supply. The Searles Valley Minerals closure in early 2026 has removed meaningful North American production capacity, increasing domestic reliance on Turkish imports at the same time that global freight costs are elevated. Eti Maden's Kirka operations remain the largest single production complex globally and are currently running at high utilization to service export demand. Rio Tinto's Boron, California facility continues to operate but cannot economically serve Asian buyers — FOB Los Angeles at USD 1,040–1,090/MT is priced out of most Asian market contexts relative to Turkish origin.

Demand side: The glass and ceramics sector accounts for approximately 49–50% of global borax consumption, with solar photovoltaic glass emerging as the fastest-accelerating demand segment. Solar glass capacity expansion in India and China, driven by national renewable energy targets, is creating near-immediate demand pulls on spot decahydrate availability. The global solar glass market was projected to reach USD 22.05 billion by 2026, translating to sustained demand growth for boron compounds as a fluxing and thermal resistance agent.

Fiberglass insulation demand remains constructive, anchored by building energy efficiency mandates across Europe and North America. Agricultural micronutrient demand from India, Brazil, and Southeast Asia provides a stable demand floor. The detergent sector, while contributing approximately 34% of historic demand, faces regulatory headwinds in the EU as REACH-based restrictions on boron concentrations in consumer products tighten, but this primarily affects pentahydrate-grade product rather than the industrial-grade decahydrate flows analyzed here.

Inventory read: Distributor inventories at Hazira and Mundra were drawn down through Q4 2025 restocking, and the spot market showed tightening as January 2026 ceramics production runs began. European distributor inventory positions are more comfortable, with Turkish origin cargoes available on standard lead times of 3–5 weeks via Mediterranean lanes.

 

Borax Decahydrate Prices by Region: Differentials and Arbitrage in 2026

Regional price spreads in the borax decahydrate market reflect three structural variables: proximity to Turkish or U.S. origin, freight cost and route risk, and local currency effects.

Turkey (FOB origin): The lowest-cost benchmark globally at USD 580–650/MT, anchored by Eti Maden's subsidized production cost base and the ongoing TRY depreciation mechanism. This price serves as the reference point for all other regional assessments.

Europe (CFR France benchmark): Mediterranean freight from Turkish ports (Iskenderun, Mersin) to Northwestern European ports (Rotterdam, Hamburg, Marseille) currently adds USD 60–80/MT to FOB Turkey, placing CFR Europe in the USD 640–720/MT range. The Red Sea rerouting added approximately USD 200–400 per TEU to container costs on Turkey-Europe lanes at peak disruption in 2025; this has partially normalized but freight remains above pre-crisis baselines by an estimated 20–30%.

India (CFR Mundra/Nhava Sheva): India is the world's largest single-country importer of borax decahydrate by shipment volume, with over 629 shipments recorded in the June 2024–May 2025 trailing twelve-month period, per Volza trade data. Landed cost at Mundra runs USD 620–690/MT CFR, reflecting transit from Turkish Mediterranean ports of approximately 12–16 days. Rupee depreciation risk is the key buyer-side variable; Indian procurement teams on Rupee-denominated budgets should model a 5–7% currency buffer above the USD CFR offer price.

Southeast Asia (CFR Singapore/Jakarta): Transit from Turkey via the Cape of Good Hope (following Red Sea avoidance) adds approximately 28–35 days and an estimated USD 80–120/MT in freight and fuel surcharges relative to pre-2025 baselines, landing CFR Southeast Asia prices in the USD 620–710/MT range. Chinese domestic supply, largely derived from Liaoning province borate deposits, provides partial competition in Southeast Asian spot markets, though Chinese material typically trades at a quality and specification discount for high-purity industrial applications.

North America (FOB Los Angeles): The most expensive origin globally at USD 1,040–1,090/MT, priced effectively for domestic U.S. consumption and Canadian border trade only. The Searles Valley closure has tightened spot availability without substantially changing FOB Los Angeles price discovery, as Rio Tinto manages its allocation through long-term contracts with major glass and ceramics producers. New spot buyers in North America should expect limited availability and plan for Turkish import options via East Coast or Gulf ports.

Region	Price Range (USD/MT)	Primary Driver	Market Balance
FOB Turkey	580–650	TRY depreciation, export demand	Tight
CFR Europe	640–720	Mediterranean freight, EUR/USD	Balanced
CFR India	620–690	Seasonal restocking, Rupee risk	Tight
CFR Southeast Asia	620–710	Red Sea freight, solar glass demand	Tight
FOB United States	1,040–1,090	Searles Valley closure, domestic only	Structural tightness

 

Borax Decahydrate Price Forecast 2026: Base Case, Upside, and Downside

Base Case Outlook: Range-Bound with a Q3 Seasonal Firm

The most probable scenario for H1–H2 2026 is a price range of USD 560–680/MT FOB Turkey, with prices gravitating toward the upper half of that band in Q3 as ceramics and solar glass procurement restocking drives seasonal demand. The Lira depreciation mechanism continues to provide a structural cost advantage for Eti Maden, capping the upside at approximately USD 700/MT FOB Turkey in the absence of a supply disruption event. Key milestones to watch: Eti Maden's annual export pricing announcements (typically communicated to major buyers in Q2), and U.S. Federal Reserve rate decisions that could affect the USD/TRY corridor.

The DXY trading around 98–99 in early 2026 — versus above 109 in January 2025 — is a meaningful structural shift. A continued DXY decline toward 95 would reduce the USD-denominated cost advantage of holding dollar-priced stocks for Asian buyers, potentially triggering inventory builds and a temporary demand surge that firms FOB Turkey offers by 5–8%.

Upside Risk: Red Sea Freight Re-Escalation or Chinese Export Restriction on Boron Compounds

The two most credible upside scenarios are: (1) A renewed escalation in Red Sea carrier attacks that forces COSCO, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd to suspend Mediterranean routing and re-divert all Turkey-Asia cargo around the Cape, adding 10–21 additional transit days and pushing freight surcharges toward USD 300–400/MT on Turkish-to-Asia lanes. Under this scenario, CFR India and Southeast Asia prices could reach USD 780–850/MT, a 20–25% spike from current levels. (2) China imposing export controls on boron intermediates or ore to prioritize domestic solar panel and semiconductor manufacturing. China has historically applied export restrictions on strategic mineral outputs (rare earths in 2010, urea in 2021), and boron compounds have been designated as a critical mineral category. An export restriction covering Chinese borate ore would tighten global feedstock supply within 60 days and could push FOB Turkey prices to USD 750–800/MT.

Downside Risk: Demand Weakness from Construction Slowdown or DXY Reversal

The primary downside scenario involves a sharper-than-expected slowdown in global construction activity, which would reduce fiberglass insulation demand and allow distributor inventories to rebuild. A synchronous slowdown in the EU and U.S. construction sectors — possible if interest rates remain elevated longer than markets anticipate — could soften borax decahydrate demand by 5–8% from current levels, pushing FOB Turkey back toward USD 520–540/MT. A second downside risk is a DXY reversal toward 103–105 (a 4–5% USD strengthening from current levels), which would raise the effective Lira-denominated revenue for Turkish producers when converting USD export proceeds, reducing Eti Maden's incentive to compete aggressively on FOB pricing and potentially opening room for Chinese domestic product to gain regional share in Southeast Asia.

Scenario	FOB Turkey Range	Key Trigger	Timeline
Base Case	USD 560–680/MT	TRY depreciation + solar glass demand	H1–H2 2026
Upside	USD 750–850/MT (CFR Asia)	Red Sea re-escalation or Chinese boron export controls	Within 60 days of trigger
Downside	USD 510–550/MT	Construction demand slowdown + DXY reversal to 103–105	Q3–Q4 2026

 

How to Time Your Borax Decahydrate Procurement in This Market

Current Recommendation: Cover Q2–Q3 2026 Volumes Now on Term Contracts

Buyers covering April–September 2026 requirements should not wait for further price discovery. The combination of thinned distributor inventory in India and Southeast Asia, seasonal ceramics and solar glass restocking demand in Q3, and the structural Red Sea freight uncertainty creates an asymmetric risk profile. The cost of being caught short in Q3 — when spot availability tightens and freight surcharges spike — significantly outweighs the cost of locking in term volumes at current USD 580–650/MT FOB Turkey levels.

For Indian buyers specifically: secure Q2 and Q3 volumes on CFR Mundra terms in the next 4–6 weeks, before Q2 cargo windows for June–July arrival close. Use a letter of credit (LC) or usance LC structure with a 90-day tenor to preserve working capital flexibility.

Contract vs. Spot Decision in This Market

Term contracts currently favor buyers over spot purchasing for one key reason: Eti Maden manages its export allocation schedule, and spot cargo availability tightens materially in Q3 as the seasonal ceramics procurement cycle peaks. Buyers on annual or semi-annual term contracts have allocation priority and avoid the spot premium of USD 30–60/MT that typically emerges in Q3 tightening periods. Buyers without existing term relationships with Turkish exporters or established traders should initiate conversations immediately — Q2 2026 contract windows are already closing for major exporters.

Contract vs. Spot for Different Buyer Types

Glass and ceramics manufacturers (high annual volume): Annual term contract with quarterly price review indexed to FOB Turkey assessments from Intratec or Argus. Avoid fully fixed-price annual contracts in a market with active currency and freight volatility — index-linked quarterly pricing provides better risk distribution.

Agricultural distributors (seasonal demand): Pre-position 60–70% of annual volume requirements in Q1–Q2, before planting season demand firms Q3 spot prices. Source directly from Turkish exporters via CFR origin terms rather than from regional distributors to avoid the 8–15% distributor margin layer.

Detergent and cleaning products manufacturers: Demand is relatively stable and non-seasonal. Quarterly term contracts on a rolling basis, reviewed 30 days before quarter-end, are the most efficient structure. Dual-source between Turkish and U.S. origin material for supply resilience, even at a cost premium for U.S. origin volumes.

Seasonal Timing Guidance

Borax decahydrate prices follow a consistent annual pattern: Q1 sees pre-production restocking demand from ceramics and glass manufacturers, supporting firm prices; Q2 typically softens slightly as inventories normalize; Q3 firms again on pre-planting agricultural demand and solar glass procurement acceleration; Q4 sees a mixed picture depending on whether European winter demand supports freight-loaded CFR European prices. The 2026 Q4 will be additionally influenced by how quickly the Searles Valley supply gap is addressed and whether any alternative North American capacity enters the market.

Risk Management Options

Buyers without access to financial derivative instruments (borax does not trade on a standardized exchange) should manage price risk through: (1) diversified origin procurement, splitting volumes between Turkish and Bolivian/Argentine origins where quality specifications permit; (2) pricing re-opener clauses in term contracts, triggered by FOB Turkey moving more than ±10% from the contract benchmark; (3) force majeure coverage in freight contracts, specifically addressing Red Sea rerouting events as a qualifying disruption.

 

Key Pricing Signals and Buyer Action Steps

The five signals that matter most for borax decahydrate in 2026:

First: USD/TRY exchange rate. If USD/TRY moves above 55, Eti Maden's cost advantage deepens and FOB Turkey prices face downward pressure despite firm demand. If USD/TRY falls below 45 (a scenario requiring significant CBRT policy reversal), Turkish FOB offers could rise 8–12% within a single contract cycle.

Second: DXY trajectory. The DXY at approximately 98–99 in early 2026 is already 10% below its January 2025 peak. A continued decline toward 95 benefits non-USD buyers on a currency basis; a reversal above 103 would increase local-currency costs for Indian and Southeast Asian buyers even if USD CFR prices are flat.

Third: Red Sea freight normalization or re-escalation. Every USD 100/MT increase in freight costs on Turkey-to-Asia lanes translates directly to CFR India and Southeast Asia price increases. Monitor weekly carrier announcements from COSCO, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd regarding Mediterranean-to-Asia routing status.

Fourth: Searles Valley Minerals capacity status. If North American capacity restarts or new borate mining capacity enters the U.S. market in H2 2026, the structural tightness on the continent eases and FOB Los Angeles premiums over FOB Turkey would compress from the current 70–80% gap.

Fifth: Chinese solar glass production targets. China's domestic solar panel manufacturing targets for 2026–2027 will determine how aggressively Chinese glass manufacturers compete for imported borax feedstocks versus consuming domestic borate ore production. Higher Chinese domestic absorption means less Chinese competitive supply reaching Southeast Asian spot markets.

Three concrete buyer actions for Q2 2026:

Buyers covering April–September 2026 volumes should finalize term contract agreements with Turkish exporters in the next 4–6 weeks, targeting FOB Turkey prices in the USD 590–640/MT range with quarterly price review indexed to Intratec or Chemanalyst assessments. Buyers in India should secure CFR Mundra arrivals for May–July vessel windows before Q2 cargo allocation closes; this is a 3–4 week decision window. All buyers currently on spot-only procurement strategies should evaluate adding at least one semi-annual term contract leg with a Turkish exporter, with a pricing re-opener clause indexed to FOB Turkey movements of more than ±10%.

For procurement teams seeking dual-origin supply resilience: Argentine and Bolivian borax decahydrate (primarily from Quiborax) provides a Southern Hemisphere alternative, particularly for South American and Central American buyers, but logistical costs from Andean inland trucking and the Arica port remain a 15–25% premium over Turkish origin for Asian buyers.

 

Frequently Asked Questions

What is borax decahydrate currently trading at in 2026?

Borax decahydrate was assessed at approximately USD 580–650/MT FOB Turkey in Q1 2026, per Intratec Primary Commodity Prices and Chemanalyst market data. CFR India (Mundra/Nhava Sheva) landed prices run USD 620–690/MT, while FOB Los Angeles prices remain significantly higher at USD 1,040–1,090/MT, reflecting U.S. domestic supply tightness following the Searles Valley Minerals closure. The FOB Turkey benchmark is trending upward from mid-2025 lows, driven by export demand and restocking activity in Asia.

What are the main factors driving borax decahydrate prices in 2026?

Three factors dominate pricing in 2026. First, the USD/TRY exchange rate: Turkish Lira depreciation lowers Eti Maden's production costs in dollar terms, effectively setting a lower ceiling for global FOB Turkey export offers. Second, Red Sea freight disruptions: rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10–21 transit days and USD 80–120/MT in freight costs to Turkey-to-Asia shipments. Third, solar glass demand acceleration: solar photovoltaic glass manufacturers in India and China are expanding capacity to meet renewable energy targets, creating immediate demand pressure on borax spot markets in Asia.

Is borax decahydrate price going up or down in 2026?

The base case is modest price firming through mid-2026 in the USD 560–680/MT FOB Turkey range, with a seasonal demand peak expected in Q3 as ceramics and solar glass manufacturers begin pre-production restocking. The primary upside risk is a Red Sea freight re-escalation or Chinese export controls on boron intermediates, which could push CFR Asia prices toward USD 780–850/MT. The primary downside risk is a construction sector demand slowdown combined with a DXY reversal above 103–105, which would relieve demand pressure and potentially push FOB Turkey back to USD 510–550/MT.

What is the best time of year to buy borax decahydrate?

The seasonal low for borax decahydrate typically falls in Q2 (April–June), when post-Q1 restocking demand subsides and before Q3 agricultural and ceramics pre-production purchasing begins. Buyers targeting the lowest annual entry price should initiate procurement discussions in late Q1 and close CFR contracts for Q2 vessel windows. Q3 is consistently the most expensive quarter for spot purchases, particularly for CFR India buyers competing against ceramics production demand.

Should I buy borax decahydrate on a term contract or spot in 2026?

Term contracts are the preferred structure for all buyers covering more than 200 MT per quarter in the current market. Spot availability in Q3 2026 is expected to tighten significantly as distributor inventories in India and Southeast Asia remain below seasonal norms following Q4 2025 restocking draws. Buyers on spot-only strategies face a Q3 premium of USD 30–60/MT and allocation risk if freight disruptions spike simultaneously. For annual volumes, a quarterly index-linked term contract structure — with a pricing re-opener clause triggered by FOB Turkey moves of more than ±10% — provides the best balance of price certainty and downside protection.

How does the Turkish Lira exchange rate affect borax decahydrate prices?

Eti Maden, the world's largest borax producer, prices its exports in USD but incurs the majority of its production costs in Turkish Lira (labor, energy, consumables, domestic logistics). When the Lira depreciates against the USD — which USD/TRY forecasts of 48–55 for 2026 imply — Eti Maden's cost base shrinks in dollar terms, creating room to hold or reduce FOB USD offers while maintaining or expanding lira-denominated margins. This mechanism sets a structural cap on FOB Turkey pricing in stable demand environments. However, the reverse dynamic also applies: if the Lira strengthens sharply, Eti Maden's cost base rises in USD terms and FOB offers must increase to maintain margins. For buyers, this means monitoring USD/TRY as a leading indicator for FOB Turkey price moves, typically with a 2–4 week lag between exchange rate shift and offer price adjustment.