EU SAF Supply Beat the 2025 ReFuelEU Mandate

First Mandate Beaten With Room to Spare

The European Union surpassed its initial Sustainable Aviation Fuel mandate in 2025, with SAF accounting for 2.79% of supply. According to the 2026 ReFuelEU Aviation Annual Technical Report published by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency on September 17, 2026, fuel suppliers delivered 1.1 million tonnes of SAF against a total aviation fuel supply of 39.3 million tonnes. The 2.79 percent blend rate comfortably exceeded the 2 percent minimum required by the ReFuelEU regulation for 2025.

Sustainable aviation fuel made up 2.8% of the EU's total aviation fuel supply in 2025, beating the 2% mandated under ReFuelEU. In 2025, 39.3 million metric tons of aviation fuel were supplied to EU airports, confirming the scale of the compliance year.

Growth Magnitude Compared to 2024

The increase was dramatic. In 2024, only around 193,000 tonnes of SAF had been supplied in the EU. Data throughout 2025 shows a significant increase in availability, with supplies rising from 193,000 tonnes in 2024 to 1.1 million tonnes in 2025, almost six times the previous year's volume before the mandate came into force.

That surge was enabled by early positioning of Neste, TotalEnergies and other HEFA producers, plus new offtake at large hubs. SAF was supplied to 121 Union airports across all 27 EU Member States, meaning 79% of Union airports received SAF during the year, compared with just 33 airports in 2024.

EASA Confirmation and Message

"We are pleased to confirm that the SAF mandate under ReFuelEU aviation was not only met but exceeded," said Florian Guillermet, EASA's executive director. "Through our monitoring work, EASA is building a strong evidence base to track this progress, understand how the European SAF market is developing and identify where further action may be needed to support the next stages of the transition."

EASA's 2026 Annual Technical Report is the official compliance ledger. Aviation fuel suppliers reported supplying 39.3 million metric tons at EU airports in 2025, of which 1.1 million tonnes or 2.8% was SAF, exceeding the mandatory minimum.

Feedstock Dependency Still High

Behind the headline beat is a structural concern. European SAF supply exceeded the first mandatory ReFuelEU Aviation target in 2025, but the market remained heavily dependent on imported feedstocks and conventional hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) based pathways.

Analysis of 2.8% vs 2% highlights that Europe beat its first SAF mandate while importing 85% of the feedstock oil. Used cooking oil and animal fats from outside the EU dominated HEFA feed, raising questions about fraud risk, lifecycle emissions and price volatility as the mandate rises to 6% in 2030.

The eSAF Gap and Next Milestones

While HEFA met the 2025 target, synthetic eSAF from green hydrogen and captured CO2 remains pre-commercial. The ReFuelEU regulation requires a sub-mandate for eSAF that grows from 2028 onward, and several eSAF producers have hit milestones in the run-up to their 2030 mandate.

SABA members backing Infinium eSAF facilities with long-term deals in late September 2026 shows corporate buyers stepping in where regulation alone has not yet created bankable demand. United Airlines extending Neste SAF supply through 2027 reflects similar hedging in the US.

Implications for Fuel Suppliers and Airlines

ReFuelEU Aviation already requires aviation-fuel suppliers at covered EU airports to meet a minimum 2 percent SAF share from 2025, rising to 6 percent in 2030, with progressively higher requirements thereafter. Beating 2% in the first year proves logistics and book-and-claim accounting work, but does not prove the market can sustain 6% without price spikes or feedstock import dependence.

For airlines, the beat reduces short-term compliance risk but increases cost. SAF premiums over Jet A remain 2-4x, and as supply moves from voluntary to mandatory, those premiums are embedded in ticket prices. The Dutch-Schiphol fund targeting consumption beyond the existing regulatory floor indicates governments expect to subsidize above-mandate volumes.

What to Watch Into 2030

Three metrics will determine if the early beat translates to durable decarbonization: share of EU-origin feedstock versus imports, first commercial volumes of eSAF counted under ReFuelEU, and treatment capacity for co-products. Brussels left battery recycling targets unchanged in September 2026 while pushing export bans on black mass to keep materials in Europe. A similar localization push for SAF feedstock and eSAF production is likely.

Europe's SAF mandate worked as a demand signal. The market may not have fully delivered on resilience.

Working Source Links:

EU SAF Supply Exceeds Initial ReFuelEU Quotas - Aviation Week - https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/safety-ops-regulation/eu-saf-supply-exceeds-initial-refueleu-quotas

EU SAF supply exceeds first ReFuelEU target - https://www.ofimagazine.com/news/eu-saf-supply-exceeds-first-refueleu-target

2.8% Vs 2%: How Europe Beat Its First SAF Mandate While Importing 85% Of The Oil - https://airmedia24.com/news/2-8-vs-2-how-europe-beat-its-first-saf-mandate-while-importing-85-of-the-oil

EU SAF supply exceeds first ReFuelEU target, feedstock reliance remains high: EASA - Fastmarkets - https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/eu-saf-supply-exceeds-first-refueleu-target-feedstock-reliance-remains-high-easa/

EU SAF supply exceeds 2025 ReFuelEU aviation target - https://www.biobased-diesel.com/post/eu-saf-supply-exceeds-2025-refueleu-aviation-target

EU SAF Supply Officially Exceeds 2025 ReFuelEU Aviation Target - 193,000 tonnes in 2024 to 1.1M tonnes - https://airportindustry-news.com/eu-saf-supply-officially-exceeds-2025-refueleu-aviation-target/