Esterhazy Turnaround Completion Sets Up Stronger Potash Production Ahead

Meta Keywords: Esterhazy Potash, Mosaic Potash, Potash Production

Introduction

The completion of turnaround and maintenance activities at Mosaic's Esterhazy potash operation in Saskatchewan is positioning the site for stronger production in 2026. Esterhazy is one of Mosaic's key potash assets, and the company expects improved operating rates at the facility to play an important role in maintaining overall potash output.

Mosaic has indicated that it expects approximately 9 million tonnes of total potash production in 2026, with stronger Esterhazy production expected to offset the volume impact of the company's Carlsbad divestiture.

Esterhazy Returns to Full Operating Rates

Esterhazy experienced a temporary production interruption following a fatal incident in December 2025. Mosaic subsequently returned the operation to full operating rates and has been working to improve production performance at the site.

The company expects Esterhazy to achieve record production in 2026, supported by operational improvements and the continued ramp-up of its HydroFloat project.

The return to stronger production is particularly important because Esterhazy represents a major component of Mosaic's North American potash operations.

HydroFloat Project Supports Higher Output

One of the key factors behind the expected production improvement is the HydroFloat project at Esterhazy. Mosaic has indicated that the project is ramping toward full production rates and should contribute to higher output while supporting lower production costs.

In its first-quarter 2026 results, Mosaic reported that Esterhazy's higher production volumes were expected to reduce potash production costs during the remainder of the year as the HydroFloat project reached full production rates.

This combination of higher volumes and improved processing efficiency could strengthen the economics of the operation as the company seeks to normalize potash production and costs.

Potash Production Outlook Strengthens

Mosaic produced approximately 8.8 million tonnes of potash in 2025. For 2026, the company expects production to increase to around 9 million tonnes, with strong Esterhazy production more than offsetting the loss of volumes associated with the Carlsbad transaction.

The company's broader strategic target is to achieve and maintain approximately 6.1 million tonnes of annual production at Esterhazy, demonstrating the site's importance to its long-term potash strategy.

Cost Benefits Could Improve Margins

Higher production at Esterhazy could also provide cost benefits. Mosaic reported that its first-quarter 2026 MOP cash cost of production was $84 per tonne, compared with $78 per tonne a year earlier. Higher costs were partly linked to a stronger Canadian dollar and increased royalty expenses.

However, Mosaic expects potash production costs to trend lower as Esterhazy volumes increase. Greater utilization of the operation and improved production efficiency can help spread fixed operating costs over a larger production base.

Implications for the Global Potash Market

Stronger Esterhazy production could provide additional stability to Mosaic's potash supply. This is particularly relevant as global fertilizer markets continue to respond to changing agricultural demand, commodity prices and supply conditions.

For fertilizer buyers, higher production availability from a major Canadian producer could support supply reliability. At the same time, MOP pricing will remain an important factor in determining procurement costs and producer margins.

Mosaic's second-quarter 2026 guidance had placed expected potash sales volumes at approximately 1.9–2.1 million tonnes, with MOP FOB mine prices expected at $260–$280 per tonne.

Outlook

The successful completion of turnaround and maintenance work at Esterhazy gives Mosaic a stronger operational platform for the remainder of 2026. With the HydroFloat project moving toward full production and the company targeting record output at the site, Esterhazy is expected to become an increasingly important contributor to Mosaic's potash production.

If production targets are achieved, the operation could help Mosaic maintain approximately 9 million tonnes of annual potash production while improving cost efficiency.

Conclusion

The completion of the Esterhazy turnaround represents an important operational milestone for Mosaic. The return to stronger operating rates, combined with the ramp-up of the HydroFloat project, is expected to support higher potash production and improved cost performance.

With Mosaic targeting approximately 9 million tonnes of potash production in 2026, Esterhazy's performance will remain a key factor to watch in the company's overall fertilizer outlook.