Red Sea Update: Suez Canal Traffic at 49% and the Double Corridor Implication

While attention throughout H1 2026 focused heavily on the Strait of Hormuz, an equally important shipping constraint continues affecting global chemical trade. The Red Sea and Suez Canal corridor, one of the world's most important maritime routes, has yet to recover from successive waves of disruption, creating what logistics professionals increasingly describe as a "double corridor" challenge.

For procurement teams, this distinction is critical. Recovery in one strategic waterway does not automatically restore global shipping efficiency if another remains constrained. As a result, freight planning for H2 2026 must evaluate both corridors together rather than treating them as independent events.

Suez Recovery Was Interrupted Before Completion

The Red Sea shipping network had already begun recovering from the disruptions experienced during 2024 and 2025.

Traffic through the Suez Canal had gradually improved but remained significantly below historical operating levels.

Industry assessments indicated that the corridor was operating at approximately 49 percent of pre-crisis capacity before renewed attacks once again disrupted commercial confidence.

Rather than continuing its recovery trajectory, vessel movements declined again as shipping companies reassessed operational risk.

A Second Disruption Changed Global Freight Planning

The renewed deterioration in Red Sea security fundamentally altered expectations for international shipping.

Instead of transitioning back toward normal routing, carriers were forced to continue relying on longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.

For chemical logistics, this meant that improving conditions in the Gulf alone could not restore traditional shipping economics.

The industry now faced simultaneous operational challenges across two separate strategic corridors.

The Double Corridor Problem

The current logistics environment differs from previous regional disruptions because two independent maritime routes influence the same global trade network.

Today, procurement teams must evaluate:

• Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Conditions in the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

• Carrier routing strategies.

• Marine insurance requirements.

• Port congestion across alternative routes.

Even if one corridor improves substantially, restrictions in the other continue influencing freight costs, vessel schedules and overall network efficiency.

Why Cape Routing Remains the Default Option

For Asia-to-Europe chemical shipments, Cape of Good Hope routing continues providing the most operationally predictable solution.

Although significantly longer than Suez Canal transits, Cape routing offers carriers:

• Stable voyage planning.

• Consistent scheduling.

• Lower security uncertainty.

• Established operational procedures.

• Greater confidence for long-term network planning.

Consequently, most major shipping companies continue treating Cape routing as their standard operating model despite gradual improvements elsewhere.

Chemical Supply Chains Continue Feeling the Impact

Longer voyages influence far more than transportation costs.

For chemical buyers, extended routing affects:

• Inventory planning.

• Working capital requirements.

• Production scheduling.

• Contract delivery windows.

• Total landed cost calculations.

Companies importing bulk chemicals, polymers, intermediates and specialty materials continue adjusting procurement strategies to accommodate these longer logistics cycles.

Why Freight Costs Cannot Return to Pre-2024 Levels Yet

One of the most important procurement misconceptions entering H2 2026 is the expectation that improving Gulf security will quickly restore historical freight pricing.

In reality, freight economics remain constrained because the global shipping network still depends on avoiding one of its most efficient trade corridors.

As long as the Red Sea continues presenting elevated operational risk, carriers must continue planning around longer voyages despite gradual improvements elsewhere.

This means that lower bunker costs can reduce freight expenses, but they cannot eliminate the structural cost premium created by Cape routing.

Two Diplomatic Timelines Now Shape Global Logistics

Unlike previous shipping disruptions, the current market depends on progress across two separate geopolitical theatres.

For freight networks to return to historical operating patterns, meaningful improvements are required in:

• The Strait of Hormuz.

• The Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb corridor.

Each route is influenced by different security dynamics, political negotiations and operational considerations.

Consequently, improvements in one corridor do not automatically restore confidence in the other.

For shipping companies, this requires maintaining flexible routing strategies until both waterways support predictable commercial navigation.

Procurement Planning Should Reflect Structural Reality

Chemical buyers should base H2 planning on current carrier operating practices rather than assumptions of rapid network normalisation.

Recommended actions include:

• Continue budgeting freight costs using Cape routing assumptions.

• Monitor developments in both Hormuz and the Red Sea simultaneously.

• Review inventory policies to accommodate longer transit times.

• Incorporate current bunker adjustment factors into landed cost models.

• Maintain regular communication with logistics providers regarding routing decisions.

This approach provides more resilient procurement planning while reducing exposure to unexpected logistics changes.

Logistics Resilience Is Now a Competitive Advantage

The experience of H1 demonstrates that successful procurement increasingly depends on supply chain flexibility rather than simply securing the lowest purchase price.

Companies that diversified suppliers, increased inventory visibility and adapted to longer shipping routes generally experienced fewer operational disruptions than those relying on historical logistics assumptions.

As H2 progresses, organisations capable of integrating geopolitical developments, carrier routing decisions and freight economics into procurement planning will continue strengthening their competitive position.

Looking Ahead to H2 2026

The Red Sea remains one of the defining structural constraints on global chemical logistics despite gradual improvements elsewhere in international shipping.

While the Strait of Hormuz continues moving toward operational recovery, Asia–Europe freight networks cannot return to pre-2024 cost structures until both the Hormuz and Red Sea corridors support safe, predictable commercial navigation. These are separate geopolitical challenges requiring separate diplomatic solutions, each progressing on its own timeline.

For procurement professionals, the key lesson is to distinguish between cyclical improvements and structural constraints. Lower crude prices, easing bunker adjustment factors and recovering Gulf exports provide genuine commercial relief. However, they do not eliminate the longer voyage distances, higher operating costs and network adjustments created by continued Red Sea security concerns.

Companies that plan H2 logistics around current operational realities—rather than expectations of rapid normalisation—will be better positioned to manage freight costs, maintain reliable supply chains and make informed procurement decisions as global shipping continues its gradual recovery.

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